One may easily assume that Mercury Retrograde is a period when the stock market in general will fall. This assumption is based on basic astrological concepts that Mercury traditionally rules trade, and it being retrograde makes trade difficult. However, I have found looking back in over the last 10 years and correlating it with stock market movement that is not the case. The following table will illustrate the findings. If in looking at it, you find errors please point them out to me.
Mercury’s retrograde periods and the S&P 500’s performance in each are summarized below. For each period, I list the retrograde dates and the S&P 500 percent change from the first day of retrograde to the last day (when Mercury went direct):
| Mercury Retrograde Period | S&P 500 % Change (First to Last Day) |
|---|---|
| Jan 21 – Feb 11, 2015 | +1.8% (market rose) |
| May 19 – Jun 11, 2015 | –0.9% (market fell) |
| Sep 17 – Oct 9, 2015 | +1.2% (market rose) |
| Jan 5 – Jan 25, 2016 | –6.9% (market fell) |
| Apr 28 – May 22, 2016 | –1.1% (market fell) |
| Aug 30 – Sep 22, 2016 | +0.0% (essentially flat) |
| Dec 19, 2016 – Jan 8, 2017 | +0.6% (market rose) |
| Apr 9 – May 3, 2017 | +1.3% (market rose) |
| Aug 13 – Sep 5, 2017 | –0.3% (market fell slightly) |
| Dec 3 – Dec 23, 2017 | +1.7% (market rose) |
| Mar 23 – Apr 15, 2018 | +2.6% (market rose) |
| Jul 26 – Aug 19, 2018 | +0.5% (market rose) |
| Nov 17 – Dec 6, 2018 | +0.2% (market rose) |
| Mar 5 – Mar 28, 2019 | +0.9% (market rose) |
| Jul 7 – Aug 1, 2019 | –0.8% (market fell) |
| Oct 31 – Nov 20, 2019 | +2.3% (market rose) |
| Feb 17 – Mar 10, 2020 | –14.5% (market fell sharply) |
| Jun 18 – Jul 12, 2020 | +2.2% (market rose) |
| Oct 14 – Nov 3, 2020 | –3.3% (market fell) |
| Jan 30 – Feb 20, 2021 | +3.5% (market rose) |
| May 29 – Jun 22, 2021 | +0.5% (market rose) |
| Sep 27 – Oct 18, 2021 | +1.0% (market rose) |
| Jan 14 – Feb 4, 2022h | –3.5% (market fell) |
| May 10 – Jun 3, 2022 | +2.7% (market rose) |
| Sep 10 – Oct 2, 2022 | –11.9% (market fell sharply) |
| Dec 29, 2022 – Jan 18, 2023 | +2.1% (market rose) |
| Apr 21 – May 14, 2023 | +0.2% (market rose) |
| Aug 23 – Sep 15, 2023 | +0.3% (market rose) |
| Dec 13, 2023 – Jan 1, 2024 | –0.6% (market fell slightly) |
Sources: Mercury retrograde date ranges are based on NASA/Swiss Ephemeris data
Conclusion of the analysis Out of these ~30 retrograde periods, the S&P 500 rose 17 times and fell 13 times. This gives a slight bias towards rising during Mercury Retrograde periods consistent with how in general the S&P 500 trends up as a whole. However, the combined total change across all periods was approximately down by –18% (the S&P’s net result if one were invested only during these retrograde periods). This aligns with academic findings that returns tend to be slightly lower during Mercury retrograde periods on average.
In other words, Mercury retrograde correlates with a modestly weaker market overall, though the effect is not uniform or predictive for each individual period.
Over the last decade, Mercury’s retrogrades did not reliably trigger major rallies or crashes in the S&P 500. It can not be considered a bear signal within itself. Some retrograde intervals coincided with gains (especially minor upticks), while others (notably early 2020 and late 2022) saw significant declines. The cumulative performance when Mercury was in retrograde was negative (~–18%), suggesting a slight tilt toward falling markets during these times
That said, the variation is high – Mercury retrograde alone is not a determinative market signal, as other astrological factors clearly play a more significant role, such as the Saturn Uranus cycle, or eclipse cycles both of which tend to be more prone to drive stock performance.
I have observed that the market does tend to fall the week before going into a retrograde period, and the week after coming out of a retrograde period.
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